Chapman University Economic Forecast: 2014 O.C. Housing Still Rising, Slower

  • November 29th, 2013
  • devinlucas
Costa Mesa, Newport Beach and Orange County Real Estate – the 36th annual Chapman University Economic Forecast held Monday, November 25 at Segerstrom Hall in Costa Mesa, predicts “significant moderation in price appreciation” for Orange County housing in 2014.
Translation… home prices in Orange County in 2014 are likely to continue upward, but at a much, much slower pace than before. By the end of 2014, the forecasters see the year-over-year percentage increase in single-family home prices to trend down to 4.1 percent, having peaked at 23.3 percent earlier in 2013. 
Interest rates are certain to rise as the Federal Reserve Board is evident to soon pull back its so-called “quantitative easing,” thus squeezing some would-be buyers, and therefore the overall pricing and availability of housing. That said, building permits are up; new construction is up; job growth is predicted up; housing remains historically affordable; and rates remain historically low.
Chapman’s authors and presenters noted this is not a bubble bursting, but a simple cool off. After all, an Orange County single-family residential home is forecasted to be worth 4.1 percent more in 12 months than it is today. Costa Mesa, Newport Beach and Orange County home prices are not going down anytime soon according to these forecasters and this author strongly concurs.
The overall economy will continue to improve in 2014, but at an ongoing sluggish pace of about 2.2 percent overall growth in gross domestic product. California should do better. Largely, this is good news, as the economy will continue to improve, but slowly.
Please remember – all real estate is local and hundreds of variables account for property value. Just because a County, State or National index is trending one way, does not automatically apply the same to each neighborhood. Many highly desirable areas such as Costa Mesa and Newport Beach often experience pricing swings dramatically different than wider trends. Some areas see deeper lows and longer recoveries. It is critical to find a reputable REALTOR® knowledgeable in the market you are seeking to provide local insight rarely found in larger, comprehensive data sources and media publications.
As a Chapman University Alumni, I was fortunate to attend the 36th annual Chapman University Economic Forecast at Segerstrom Hall right here in Costa Mesa.
Sources: 
-Self, as attendee;
-Event handouts;
-www.chapman.edu/economic-forecast
-www.dailypilot.com/news/tn-dpt-me-1127-chapman-economic-forecast-20131126,0,2751288.story
Disclaimer: Author owns residential property in Costa Mesa and serves individual, investor and business interests in residential and commercial real estate sales, rental and development.
-Devin Lucas


Author Devin R. Lucas is a Real Estate Attorney, Broker and REALTOR®, specializing in Newport Beach, Costa Mesa and Orange County, serving individual, investor and small business interests in real estate.  Active with the Newport Beach Association of REALTORS® and Costa Mesa Chamber of Commerce, Devin R. Lucas Real Estate is an independent real estate brokerage and law practice located in Newport Beach, California.

Devin R. Lucas Real Estate
Real Estate Attorney | Real Estate Broker | REALTOR®
devinrlucas.com | devin@devinrlucas.com | BRE No. 01912302
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